February 2013
Publication year: 2013
Source:Building and Environment, Volume 60
This work describes the research conducted in order to assess possible changes and uncertainties in future energy performance of the residential building stock in Stockholm. The investigation is performed on a sample of 153 existing and statistically selected buildings and covers the period of 1961–2100. Four uncertainty factors of the climate have been considered: global climate models, regional climate models, emissions scenarios and initial conditions; thereby, 12 different scenarios have been created. Energy performance of the building stock is studied by looking at the overall heating and cooling demand and the indoor temperature. Three cooling strategies of the building stock were evaluated: natural, natural and mechanical (hybrid mode) and only mechanical. To decrease the number of simulations, a method for sampling the climate data has been developed and tested against Sobol quasi-random sampling method. Results of the investigation show that for all the climate scenarios the future heating demand will decrease at the end of the studied period, i.e. around 30
► Energy simulation of the building stock in Stockholm is performed considering the climate change. ► Four climate uncertainties are considered: GCMs, RCMs, emissions scenarios and initial conditions. ► A method for sampling the climate data was developed and tested against Sobol quasi-random sampling method. ► Three cooling strategies are evaluated: natural, natural and mechanical and only mechanical. ► Heating demand will decrease in the future but climate uncertainties play an important role
Publication year: 2013
Source:Building and Environment, Volume 60